Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.563547 2.734767 2.917544 3.128200 3.365590 3.626386 3.936734
2025-02-16 2.284139 2.511980 2.768341 3.081618 3.459054 3.905845 4.485438
2025-02-23 2.114284 2.373486 2.675893 3.061261 3.549354 4.162083 5.016376
2025-03-02 1.985848 2.264023 2.597651 3.037014 3.616521 4.380982 5.517366
2025-03-09 1.883604 2.174462 2.531264 3.014247 3.673895 4.583335 6.018447
2025-03-16 1.805681 2.107463 2.485132 3.009207 3.748434 4.811421 6.591768
2025-03-23 1.755278 2.070552 2.472902 3.045239 3.879600 5.133889 7.377457
2025-03-30 1.681734 1.998658 2.408747 3.002565 3.889415 5.268011 7.864877
2025-04-06 1.615217 1.932061 2.347020 2.957402 3.888973 5.382308 8.337403
2025-04-13 1.543945 1.855612 2.267440 2.880359 3.831278 5.392217 8.604728
2025-04-20 1.515245 1.834604 2.262499 2.911213 3.944461 5.707719 9.587143
2025-04-27 1.496527 1.825840 2.273507 2.965596 4.099599 6.120051 10.926122
2025-05-04 1.473425 1.810568 2.275179 3.007017 4.239745 6.533418 12.462408
2025-05-11 1.432295 1.768469 2.236014 2.981891 4.262493 6.719686 13.478546
2025-05-18 1.396341 1.732135 2.203363 2.964612 4.296842 6.934867 14.690736
2025-05-25 1.361341 1.695762 2.168856 2.941842 4.318514 7.126057 15.937411
2025-06-01 1.328919 1.661860 2.136445 2.920275 4.339980 7.320261 17.324221
2025-06-08 1.302851 1.636125 2.115091 2.915498 4.392397 7.595409 19.240136
2025-06-15 1.288103 1.626156 2.117026 2.949666 4.523317 8.086810 22.597176
2025-06-22 1.255951 1.589695 2.076787 2.909198 4.501595 8.189000 24.171585
2025-06-29 1.224868 1.553930 2.036374 2.866348 4.471502 8.265144 25.718953
2025-07-06 1.188061 1.508814 1.980046 2.793198 4.373715 8.144675 25.996732
2025-07-13 1.176810 1.501197 1.981982 2.822501 4.492036 8.645283 31.113972